RALPH GROVES' LETTERS
Letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio
29 June 2025
To: Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Dear Mr. Secretary:
I am Ralph Groves, the 2026 Candidate of the Libertarian Party of Florida for the 11th Congressional District of Florida.
As a former DIA analyst of Iran, and a former resident of Iran during the late Shah's reign, I hereby share with you some of my knowledge of Iran pertaining to potential regime change.
Iran is susceptible to regime change principally because the theocratic Islamic Republic is an innovative type of government that is without precedent in Iran's history. Lacking precedent, the theocracy is contrary to the character of the Iranian people, who are mostly pragmatic rather than apocalyptic fanatics. During 2,500 years of Iran's history, the country always had a monarchy along with a socially and politically influential clerical class (at first the Magi of the Zoroastrian Religion, and later the Ayatullahs of Shi'ite Islam).
Regime change will likely occur when an Iranian military officer, with impeccable nationalistic credentials (a Napoleon type figure) along with fervent Shi'ite piety, will come to the fore. His ascendancy to national leadership, perhaps assuming the title of Shah, will have to be approved by the Majlis (Parliament). The precedent is the ascendancy of Reza Shah Pahlavi, a former Army officer, who became Shah in 1925, as approved by the Majlis, which deposed the former Ahmad Shah Qajar. Reza Shah Pahlavi was the father of the late Shah, Muhammad Reza Pahlavi, who reigned until the 1979 Islamic Revolution when he was overthrown.
It is unlikely, however, that Iranians will embrace the exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of Muhammad Reza Pahlavi, to become Shah because the erstwhile ruling Pahlavi family was very unpopular. The Pahlavis' unpopularity was due to the common view that they were not sufficiently nationalistic and that they were secular. The Crown Prince is a Westernized figure, and has called for a secular Iran, but these factors indicate that he is out of touch with Iranian history and culture and apt to suffer the same lack of popular support as his overthrown father.
The United States should not play an overt role in regime change as it would undermine the potential new leader's nationalistic credentials. A precedent exists: Iranians regarded the former Shah, Muhammad Reza Pahlavi, as a Western puppet commencing from the 1953 overthrow of the then Prime Minister Mossadegh, orchestrated by the U.S. and U.K. This resulted in opposition against the Shah from many quarters, including nationalists, leftists, and clerics (the Ulama).
If the Islamic Republican regime were to be supplanted, the new leader, likely a Napoleon type figure, will have to be scrupulously deferential of the clerical class (the Ulama and its high-ranking Ayatullahs) as he would recall that the oppositionist Ulama (starting with the efforts by Ayatullah Burujirdi in 1959) worked for 20 years to overthrow the late Shah and could overthrow him, too.
If a new regime seeks to make Iran a nuclear power, it will likely obtain nuclear weapons from another country and will posture such weapons for deterrence against any potential adversary, not overt aggression.
Disclaimer: Ralph Groves supports the Libertarian principle of a non-interventionist foreign policy. Therefore, he opposes any military intervention in Iran, but he is not a spokesman for the Libertarian Party.
Note: Ralph Groves is very familiar with the Middle East. He visited Israel, lived in Iran, and was stationed in Iraq while he was an Army officer. In addition, he majored in Middle East Studies while he was a college student. Prior to retirement, he served in the Pentagon. In retirement, he wrote two books on Iran. The totality of his experiences and education supports his conformity to the Libertarian principle of a non-interventionist foreign policy and his forecast that regime change will occur in Iran under the leadership of a nationalistic Napoleon type figure who will be religiously pious.
cc: Lt. Col. Daniel Davis, senior fellow and military expert at the Defense Priorities think tank based in Washington, D.C.
Letter to Senator Josh Hawley
25 July 2025
To: Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator (R-Missouri)
Dear Sir:
I thank you for writing to me concerning the need to reduce abortions in our country.
I applaud your pro-life stance, and, in particular, your support for the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America Organization.
Your effort to stop mail-order abortions -- via distribution of Mifepristone without medical supervision -- is commendable.
When I am elected to Congress, I will work with you and pro-life organizations to promote a culture of life to welcome all babies into the world.
Very Respectfully,
Ralph Groves
2026 Libertarian Candidate for Congress
11th Congressional District, Florida
P.S. I am endorsed by the Pro-Life Caucus of the Libertarian Party of Florida.
Disclaimer: Candidate Groves exercises his right to protected free speech, but is not a spokesman for the Libertarian Party of Florida.
Letter to Editor, Orlando Sentinel, about Carter's failure in Iran
5 January 2025
Dear Editor, Orlando Sentinel:
The recent passing of President Jimmy Carter prompts recollection of one of his unfortunate legacies: His lack of support for our ally, the late Shah of Iran, which emboldened anti-Shah militant Islamists in that country.
Without continuity of U.S. backing, Carter weakened the Shah, who had been a rock of stability in the Middle East and a staunch U.S. ally. Iranian clerics who were willing to work with the Shah were undermined. These were “accommodationists” who cooperated with the Shah provided he ruled according to Iran’s Constitution rather than by royal decree. The key figures of this group included the Imam Jum’ah of Tehran and Ayatullah Mahdavi, who avoided confrontations against the Shah. Other clerics, especially strict Islamists, such as the “justice group” led by Ayatullah Khomeini and Ayatullah Shirazi became more vehement against the weakened Shah. Khomeini ultimately succeeded in overthrowing him in 1979 via the Islamic Revolution, which I personally witnessed when I lived in Iran.
Since then, with Iran ruled by Islamist militants, starting with Khomeini, the region and the world have suffered repercussions. The immediate one was in Iran itself when militants seized the U.S. Embassy in 1979. Later in 1979, the first regional repercussion was in Afghanistan. The then-Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to protect its pliant regime there from Iranian Islamists. During subsequent decades, the Soviets and its pliant regime were defeated, the country was racked by civil war, and various Islamist groups became ascendant and terroristic against the West, including the Mujahedin, Taliban, al-Qaeda, and Isis-Khorasan. This led to a decades-long U.S. intervention, resulting in the deaths of thousands of U.S. soldiers. In 1980, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein perceived that Iran’s armed forces were in disarray after the Shah’s overthrow and invaded Iran, precipitating an eight-year-long war and the deaths of half a million soldiers on both sides. Meanwhile, Iran became assertive against Israel via proxy groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah, which continue to endanger Israel.
Carter’s weakness and lack of support for the Shah resulted in a cascading effect of repercussions that the world has been suffering for decades. Carter’s tragic legacy is his betrayal of our ally, which resulted in regional instability, revolution, the rise of Islamism, invasions, wars, and the deaths of millions of people.
Ralph Groves, Doctor of Arts
U.S. Army Major (Ret.), Veteran, Iraq War
Letter: Bulwark against militant Islamism in West Africa
PUBLISHED: July 12, 2018 at 6:15 p.m. | UPDATED: December 13, 2018 at 3:25 a.m.
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As a former analyst of West Africa, I was interested in your article “Islamist terror groups eye West Africa” (Orlando Sentinel, July 6). The article correctly stated that Islamist militant groups threaten West African countries. As you mentioned, these groups include Boko Haram and al-Qaida affiliates (e.g. al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, a Salafi-Islamist group). Though not mentioned, Ansar al-Din, an Islamist group in northern Mali, is also a threat.
More important, your article’s discussion about security forces (with American and European assistance) and about the fragility of some countries’ governments left out the main bulwark against militant Islamism: the cultural factor of Sufism, the variant of Islam prevalent in West Africa.
Over centuries, Sufism accommodated African traditions, has been tolerant of Animism and Christianity, and has emphasized spirituality instead of overt control of governments — therefore opposing militant Islamism in these regards.
While Sufism in West Africa has been the main bulwark against Islamist militants, its cultural influence may be eventually undermined.
Saudi Arabia and Iran fund expansion of Wahhabism and Shi’ism, respectively, eroding the influence of anti-Islamist Sufism.
Security forces and governments will never be strong enough to counter Islamist militants if Sufism loses its predominant position in West African culture.
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Ralph Groves Winter Garden